Saturday, January 29, 2011

Will the Chinese vote for BN?

Political campaigns for Tenang state seat by-election cease at midnight today. Last ditch effort by contesting parties entered more personal yesterday when speakers, especially from the Opposition lost a little bit of their balance by launching massive character assassination on PM Najib, its Cabinet and policies.

Calls for both sides to have a 'clean' one-week campaign went unheeded as the same speakers for previous 'delicate by-elections' such as Galas, Bukit Gantang, Kuala Terengganu and Bukit Selambau were brought in.

Since Johor had not seen any by-elections since 1989, the people in Tenang were never exposed to massive character assassinations and carpet bombings. Tension was high at several places amid tight security by the police, Rela and the FRU. However, no untoward incident took place except for some verbal abuse at an Umno ceramah near Labis last night.

The cyber-war by bloggers, notably those of pro-govt is also heating up the solemn look of Labis when some of them published a series of harsh attacks on Anwar Ibrahim, Kit Siang, Guang Eng, Karpal, Nik Aziz and their candidate.

With the rakyat to decide on whether Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat should take control of Tenang tomorrow, attention is centered at the 5,766 Chinese voters, who represent 39.08 per cent of the total 14.753 registered voters.

"It looks like Chinese all for DAP (a component in PR). In the last national poll, they were not very supportive of BN. As the nation gets older, the Malaysian Chinese are becoming anti-government," said a senior government official whom I met in Segamat.

"Its not like the Perikatan days when they fully supported the government," he added.

Even the 7,014 registered Malay voters (47.54 per cent) will not going to be 'all for BN'. Pas, another component of PR is much alive in Labis. Its candidate Normala Sudirman, 38 is also a well-known and respected teacher in the constituency.

Azahar Ibrahim, 39 or BN (Umno) is undoubtedly the favorite to win the by-election, thus making Normala the underdog. Since Umno has a strong base in Labis and Tenang, confidence is high at the BN camp that retaining the seat is 'kacang'.

However, Deputy PM Muhyiddin challenge for BN to secure about 5,000 majority votes (2,492 in the last general election) is quite impossible to attain. It all depends on whether the Chinese would vote for the ruling party.

The 1,780 Indian voters (12.07 per cent) are almost all for BN as had been the case in previous election but they too could have a change of mind as their initial request for an Indian candidate for Galas was turned down by the leadership.

As at today, reports and feedback from various groups predicted that BN would win by a majority of 2,800 votes, 2,200 less than Muhyiddin's target and only about 300 better than 2008 national poll. However, some conservative estimates put the majority to notch 3,600 if BN party workers multiply effort on the eve of polling to woo supporters.

Its a daunting task for BN. A win is secured but the majority could take a sharp decline should voters turn blase with bias media reporting and nauseating postings by pro-BN bloggers. As voters in Tenang are not used to such a 'dirty' game, we can expect some sympathy votes to go to Normala.

And again, the Chinese voters hold the key to BN's victory. As to whether most of them will opt for BN or PR depends much on how they absorb themselves to national development and the achievement of Najib's government thus far.

For my personal observation, only 15 per cent of the Chinese votes will go for BN. And by taking into account other factors such as sympathy votes, the PR strength, candidates' personality, blogs and on-the-fence voters, BN can only retain Tenang seat. Majority votes will not move much.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

bujai,

u know, i know and many others know. the chinese support for bn is diminishing. in the next pru, they will continue voting for dap and pakatan rakyat, unless we give up the prime minister post to them!

that's exactly what they want. they want to rule the country.

to them, the malaysia should be turned into another singapore where the chinese controls everything.

veteran said...

makin negara maju, makin kuat tentangan rakyat keturunan cina terhadap kerajaan. hairan.

tetapi jika anwar ibrahim jadi pm bagi pihak dap dan pas, seluruh sistem pemerintahan negara akan rapuh.

mengapa? anwar akan terpaksa menjaga hubungannya dengan dap dan pas, dan dengan itu akan menarik semua hak rakyat pribumi, hak majlis raja-raja melayu dan pelbagai perkara lagi.

ke mana melayu akan pergi?

rumah tepi jambatan said...

tak kisahlah orang cina undi bn atau tidak. yang penting aku sekeluarga dapat kerja, dapat makan nasik dan tukar pakaian dua tiga kali setahun. selama ni pun aku undi kerajaan tapi taraf hidup kat kampung aku masih macam tu jugak. minta peruntukan untuk besarkan masjid dah 15 tahun, penduduk makin ramai. tapi aku tengok di bandar2, makin banyak masjid yang cantik dibina tapi jemaahnya tak seramai mana. aku dan keluarga akan tetap sokong kerajaan tapi kerajaan sokong ke tidak rakyat setia macam kami ni?

lim brady said...

chinese votes?

u must be kidding!

even mca and gerakan members vote for the opposition pact!

fatt choy said...

yes, the chinese hold the key to the majority but will majority of malays too vote the government?

things have changed, bro. over the years, even the malays are getting radical. more are joining pas and pkr to symbolise their discontentment for their poor standard of living and over unsettled issues.

we cannot blame the chinese if most of them do not vote the government. they want some changes.

we cannot become like singapore, a republic without opposition...

purple rain said...

i believe bn will win but the majority will be reduced to just 1,800.

why? more malays in tenang are supporting pas.

another factor is the badmouthing by pro-umno bloggers against normala sudirman.

khalifah said...

saya setuju yang bloger pro-umno ni akan membuat lebih ramai pengundi atas pagar memberi undi simpati kepada calon pas.

mengapa mesti diungkit kisah lama normala?

bagaimana pula jika ada bloger yang ungkit kisah lama najib, rosmah dan yang lain? macam mana najib berpisah dengan isteri pertama, bagaimana rosmah bercerai dengan suaminya dahulu kerana nak kawin dengan najib dan sebagainya, macam mana anak rosmah dengan suami dulu kawin tapi tak dibenarkan media buat liputan, dsb.

seronok tak kalau ada pihak ungkit benda macam ni?

umno pun kena fikir kalau nak employ bloger macam mereka ni!

saya pun ahli umno dan sokong kerajaan tapi sebagai bloger, kita perlu ada etik. kalau kita sanggup hentam orang lain, kita juga jangan marah kalau orang hentam kita.

sebenarnya banyak benda orang boleh hentam pihak kita, kalau mereka nak. cuma rasa rasa mereka malas berbuat demikian!

extreme member said...

undilah umno!

hidup umno!

hidup pemimpin umno!

hidup ahli umno!

Anonymous said...

not so many on the fence voters, i think but many sympathy votes will go to normala as the result of her personal bashing-ups by the media and new media.

susu getah said...

the chinese votes are not the main factor.

the malays should decide. if majority of them vote for bn while all chinese go after pr, bn will certainly win marginally.

kawan SMSJ77 said...

jai, kau kat tenang ke?

hati2, ada orang nak belasah kau sebab kau sokong hisham tiba2.

he he... rilex bro, kau bloger terhormat sebab pendapat kau bernas dan tak hentam siapa2.

keep it up

level playing field said...

dont blame the chinese for not supprting bn.

many malays are also running away from umno.

there must be good reasons why so many malays are against umno today.

conduct a research and find the answer, then publish it, will you?!

jantina said...

bn majority will be reduced to around 800.

this will send a strong signal to datuk najib that his 1malaysia does not augur well in bringing malaysians closer...

Anonymous said...

bro,

why didnt u join the so-called 'elite bloggers' parpukari, voice, bigdog, rbf and others?

pro-PKR said...

makin lama nanti, orang cina takkan sokong barisan nasional pun. yang jadi ahli mca dan gerakan pun akan kurang sebab dah bosan dengan telatah pemimpin mereka dan juga pemimpin dalam umno....

tengoklah dalam pru akan datang!

Anonymous said...

muhyidin mimpi agaknya nak dapat majoriti 5,000 undi. kalau dapat 500 pun dah syukur!

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Eric said...

LKY is AWESOME !
He plays CHESS @ a GEOPOLITICAL LEVEL always 3 moves ahead.
The audience is not Singapore.
He is HELPING NAJIB & ROSMAH consolidate UMNO's influence.
By slighting the Malays, he anticipated the knee jerk or instinctive reaction of Malays in the Semenanjung, that is "circling the wagons" against the Chinese BOOGEYMAN.
In essence TORPEDOING any chance Anwar or PAKATAN have of establishing a beachhead @ the Tenang/Labis By-Election and for the upcoming Malaysian General Elections.
He wants a tarnished Najib & UMNO to remain in power to secure Singapore's future.

poket kosong said...

salam,

sekarang ni baru nak ujan. harap2 orang bn keluar mengundi awal dan buang tabiat keluar petang.

kalau petang, ramai la yang tak keluar mengundi,

penyokong pembangkang jadi contoh terbaik sebab pagi2 dah keluar, tak kira cuaca macam mana demi memastikan parti mereka dapat undi maksimum.

semoga kita berjaya

Anonymous said...

the chinese voted for the opposition cus they want change...they know a corrupt system won't work...if u know the chinese history u'll know what i mean...that is also the reason why chinese are all over the world today...malas nak ajar korang sejarah...seriously if the chinese wanted to control everything, they could have done it long time ago la!!! even the sultan masa dulu kena mintak tolong china takut kan siam...orang china pikir masa depan bro...bukan 5 tahun tapi 50-100 tahun...diaorang tahu ada system yg korup, masa depan negara akan lingkup...mcm di negeri china dulu! my advice to my malay brothers yg tak sedar...buka mata dan pandang jauh skit...pasal singapore kalo u ingat org melayu sendiri yg give it away kerana dare not face the problems masa tu...sekarang dah maju dan kaya....cakap org cina curi...wake up before it's too late...dan baca la sejarah skit..

Senget Singh Batcha said...

Rumah tepi Jambatan, engkau adalah contoh terbaik kemunduran orang Melayu. Syabas! Jika pandangan ini adalah pandangan majority orang Melayu, Good Luck mate !

BISON said...

macam susah sikit nak menang banyak. ujan lebat, ada tempat pulak banjir. bn patut sediakan helikopter.

macam mana pun, aku tengok bn memang boleh memang.... tipis je kot!

Anonymous said...

bro,

if bn's majority is reduced, its not because of flood or whatever. its because of some stupid and 'overboard' blogging by some of your friends.

Anonymous said...

no chinese will vote for bn in tenang! they are fed up with soi lek, ghani, muhyidin and mca!

jangan pandang atas said...

BN akan dikira kalah jika memang dengan majoriti yang tipis atau kurang daripada dahulu.

ini petanda kurang enak untuk datuk najib adakan pru akan datang.

jika pengundi cina terus menolak konsep BN, maka akan buruklah padahnya...